Future building volumes for 2018 and 2019

The future building volumes for the European construction sector will on average grow with 2.6% in 2018 and with 2.9% in 2019. The highest growth will be in the Netherlands and the lowest growth can be expected in Italy. These are results of the Q3 2017 report of the European Architectural Barometer, based on 1,600 successful interviews with architects.

Jeroen de Gruijl

Door Jeroen de Gruijl
10 jan 2018
Afbouw, Bouw,

Biggest growth in the Netherlands, Poland and Spain

The construction sector in the Netherlands and Spain are predicted to show the highest growth figures in the coming years. For the Netherlands growth is estimated on 6% in 2018 and 6.1% in 2019. In Spain a growth of 5% in 2018 and 5.1% in 2019 is expected. This is slightly lower in Poland (3.0% in 2018 and 3.4% in 2019), but still above the European average.

Growth for France, Germany and United Kingdom can be expected also

The future building volumes in Germany will grow with 2.8% in 2018 and 2.9% in 2019, meaning that Germany continues its stable growth path that was already seen in recent years. Countries like the UK and France will grow with more than 2% as well. In the UK this is around 2.5% for the coming years and although the situation might be uncertain, growth figures remain stable. In France a growth of 2% in 2018 and 2.4% in 2019 is expected, which clearly shows that France found the path of recovery after crisis years. 

Lowest increase in Italy and Belgium

The Italian construction market has had some hard times in the past, but for the coming years a modest growth is expected. The future building volumes for Italy show small growth figures of respectively 0.5% in 2018 and 1.1% in 2019. Still, total building volumes in this market remain at a very low point compared to pre-crisis years. Belgium growth figures are quite modest as well, but throughout the years this market didn’t show such a strong set back as was seen in Italy. The Belgian construction sector is expected to grow by 1.2% in 2018 and 1.5% in 2019. 

Conclusion

Based on the figures of the eight European countries included in the European Architectural Barometer study, a steady growth in the European construction sector can be expected in the coming years. Also markets that were hit hard, such as the Netherlands, Spain, France and Italy show positive signs again. The building volumes are predicted based on indicators such as consumer, industrial and construction confidence plus the building permits in both the residential and the non-residential sector. Furthermore, at the basis of this prediction model is the early cyclical position that architects have in the construction sector. An increase of their orderbook now, will lead to higher construction volumes in 2-3 years time.

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of Jeroen de Gruijl

hoogenboom@usp-mc.nl
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degruijl@usp-mc.nl
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